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If this summer felt relentless, that's because it was. Andalucía has officially recorded its second warmest summer since records began in 1961, beaten only by last year, according to Juan de Dios del Pino, the regional delegate for Aemet, Spain's national meteorological agency. The average temperature across June, July and August came in at 26.6°C, a full 1.7 degrees above the average for the past thirty years. In Ceuta it was the warmest summer in the entire historical series, and in Melilla the third warmest.

 

The human cost of that heat was severe, with Spain recording record heat-related deaths across the summer. The meteorological picture behind those numbers is now coming into sharp focus.

 

June was the standout month, the warmest June in the historical series for Andalucía. July ranked fourth warmest and August seventeenth, though Del Pino was quick to point out that August could easily have pushed the summer into outright record territory were it not for ten consecutive days of westerly winds and more moderate temperatures between August 20 and 29. Without that brief respite, he said, this summer would have been "record-breaking."

 

Records were broken in Granada, Málaga and Almería, with the highest single temperature of the summer recorded in Granada province. A heatwave then ran from September 2 to 7, stretching the heat well past the official end of summer.

 

Across Spain as a whole, 61 days of heatwaves were recorded between June and August, the highest number ever registered in a single summer. Del Pino made a remark that captures just how much has changed: African heat, the traditional trigger for extreme temperatures in Andalucía, is no longer needed for parts of the region to reach 42°C. The heat now generates itself.

 

It was also the eleventh driest summer since 1961, though that aspect of the season attracted less attention than the temperatures.

 

As for what comes next, Aemet puts the probability of a warmer than normal autumn at 60%, rising to 70% in eastern Andalucía. Temperatures for September, October and November are forecast to run between half a degree and one degree above normal. On rainfall, Del Pino was more cautious, noting that there is a 40% chance of above-normal precipitation, with slightly higher odds in the western part of the region around Huelva. Beyond that, he said, there is simply no reliable signal yet.

 

 

Image: AI generated