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On Wednesday afternoon, October 8, a cold front began moving towards Spain. Showers and isolated storms started to appear inland and are now rapidly moving eastwards, bringing the worst of the weather on Thursday October 9 in the form of Storm Alice, which the State Meteorological Agency (Aemet) warns could develop into a DANA.

 

The most affected areas will be those in the east, where storms and downpours could be locally intense, leaving large accumulations of rain in a short period of time.

 

The Valencian Community, Murcia, the Balearic Islands and Catalonia will bear the brunt. Showers are also expected in other areas along the Mediterranean coast and inland parts of the east, such as Teruel, Cuenca, Jaén and Albacete.

 

On Thursday, storms will begin to develop in the early morning, accompanied by heavy rainfall. The provinces most affected will be Valencia, Alicante and Murcia. Throughout the morning, unstable weather will be concentrated mainly in southern Valencia, northern Alicante and the island of Ibiza.

 

Severe thunderstorms are expected in Murcia later on Thursday afternoon, which could spread to nearby provinces such as Jaén, Albacete and Almería. Some intense thunderstorms are also forecast in Catalonia, especially in the province of Barcelona. Showers will continue in the rest of the country.

 

 

Looking ahead to Friday October 10, unstable weather will again be concentrated between Valencia, Alicante and Murcia during the early hours. As mid-morning approaches, the strongest storms will tend to move southeast.

 

In the afternoon, the storms will affect all the provinces between Málaga and Valencia, as well as Jaén, Albacete and Cuenca. They will be locally intense in all these areas, although they will tend to subside as night falls, with instability once again concentrated between Murcia, Alicante and Valencia.

 

 

DANA Alice could begin to form, albeit very weakly, by Saturday October 11. In any case, instability is expected to continue affecting the Mediterranean. During the early morning hours, strong storms and downpours are forecast to impact the same areas as in previous days, as well as the islands of Ibiza and Mallorca.

 

During the morning and early afternoon, the instability is expected to partially subside in Murcia and Alicante, with the most intense storms remaining between Valencia and Castellón. They are also expected to continue in the Balearic Islands and could reach the island of Menorca.

 

 

Rain will persist between Valencia, Castellón and the Balearic Islands into the early hours of Sunday October 12. In the morning, the downpours could spread to coastal areas of Tarragona and Barcelona, ​​although with less intensity.

 

Thankfully, the instability will tend to diminish by the end of Sunday, and a more stable day is expected on Monday, according to the latest forecasts. Although some isolated showers could still occur, they will be much weaker than in previous days.

 

Throughout this episode, rainfall accumulations could be very high in some areas. In certain parts of the province of Valencia, rainfall could exceed 150 to 250 mm. Other provinces, such as Alicante, Murcia and Castellón, could record accumulations of up to 100 mm.

 

In the rest of the country, rainfall amounts are expected to be more moderate, ranging from 30 to 60 mm. However, it should be noted that this is a storm event, so local totals are likely to be higher.

 

 

Images: Aemet